Rules for the Value Play System

The Value Play Free Horse Racing system was developed for daily play using Wunderdog's daily horse racing newsletter.  

This system is not developed for use at the racetrack as it focuses on one or two races a day played online.  If you are looking for a system that allows you to play remotely, grinding out a profit over the month.

Rules For Finding The Value Play Horse:

The Value Play horse is the best combination of a horse that has a good chance to win the race but is overlooked by the betting public.  Find the Value Play horse using the following rules.
  1. Subscribe to Wunderdog's Free daily horse racing picks.  This is a FREE service.  You can sign up for your subscription by Clicking Here.  Once you register you will receive an email from Wunderdog every day, Wednesday through Sunday, around mid day.
  2. Beside each of the selections record the morning line.  The morning line is the odds established by the track handicapper usually the day before the race is scheduled to be run.  Its a kind of starting place or guide.  I use the morning line because I intend to place my bet early and I assume the betting public will generally agree.  The morning line can be found on the Daily Racing Form website or on Twinspires.
  3. Any horse that is 5 to 1 on the morning line is the Value Play horse.  If more than one horse is 5 to 1  the horse that is ranked highest by Wunderdog  is the Value Play horse.
  4. If there is no 5 to 1 horse look to see if any horse has a 9 to 2 morning line.  If there is you have found the Value Play horse.  Ties are broken as explained under rule #3. 
  5. If no horse has a 9 to 2 morning line check to see if the is a 4 to 1 morning line horse.  
  6. If you have not yet found a horse that meets the prior conditions check for the horse with the lowest morning line between 6 to 1 and 10 to 1.  Once again ties are broken as explained under rule #3.
  7. If you have still not found a Value Play horse next check for a 7 to 2 horse.  If there is no 7 to 2 horse play the lowest odds morning line horse over 10 to 1.
  8. Special Rule: In some instance there are no horses with a morning line over 7 to 2.  In these instances the horse with the highest morning line is the value play horse keeping in mind that all ties are resolved as explained under rule # 3.
  9. The rules will become clear in the Examples Section below:
Betting And Money Management:

Just as important a picking the right horse is how to bet on the race horse to get the maximum  return on your bet.  When it comes to betting and money management I always think in terms on betting units.  For me a betting unit is $5.00.  In setting your unit be sure to set it small enough so that you can last through the inevitable losing streak.  As a rule of thumb set your unit price at 1% to 2% of your bankroll.  The following are the Value Play System rules for betting.
  1. Bet 1 unit ($5.00) on the Value Play horse to win.  Historically the Value Play horse win % is about 20%
  2. Bet 2 units ($10.00) on the Value Play horse to place.  Based on the selection process above, we have eliminated over bet short priced favorites ensuring the place price will be very good.  Historically the Value Play horse places between 40% to 50%.
  3. Bet 1 unit ($5.00)  on an exacta with the Wunderdog first pick over the Value Play horse.   This exacta allows us to take advantage of Wunderdog's very high win rate for their top selections.  If the value Play horse is Wunderdog's top pick then use the Wunderdog second pick at the top of the exacta.  Historically these exacta plays hit at 15%.  
  4. This brings the total amount wagered on each race to 4 units or $20.00.  As stated earlier you can adjust the amount of each unit to something that suits you better but keep the number of units bet per race constant.  As an example, if you use $2.00 for each unit you will bet $2.00 to win, $4.00 to place and your exacta bet will be $2.00.  All historical information and record keeping on this site assumes a $5.00 per unit price.
  5. Don't be afraid to "paper bet".  This system doesn't cost you a penny until you start betting.  Make sure the system is right for you.

Measurement and reporting is an important step in following any horse racing system.  It lets us know on no uncertain terms if we are winning or losing.  Measurement also helps us through the enviable losing streaks.  The history of the system gives us some comfort that the winning ways will return.  

This site reports daily progress of the Value Play system.  Follow the daily progress of the system by visiting the page labeled "Yesterday's Results" or Click Here to be taken directly to the daily results page.

To see that actual results for the system from August 2011 forward (excluding October), visit the page labeled "Past Month's Results" page or Click Here.

Example #1:  August 28, 2011

Below is a copy of Wunderdog's  free selections for Sunday August 28th.   Notice the the east coast selection was for Woodbine as hurricane Irene forced cancellation of the Saratoga card.  Also note the predicted post times are given for each race.  No excuses for being shut out.   

Wunderdog provided 4 picks for the 5th race at Woodbine scheduled to post at 3:00 PM eastern. 
Wonderdog Free Selection  August 28th 2010

Step 1:  Record The Morning Line: Top Pick, One Big Gator, scratched.  Second pick, Wonder Phil's morning line was 9 to 2.  Third pick, Squeeze The Fox had a morning line of 15 to 1. Last pick,  Persecute has a morning line of 15 to 1.

Step 2:  Find the Value Play Horse:  There are no 5 to 1 horses........there is a 9 to 2 horse, Wonder Phil.  

Step 3:  Bet Wonder Phil:  Because Wonder Phil has a morning line of 9/2 (and there are no 5 to 1 morning line entries) he becomes our Value Play horse.  Bet $5.00 to win (1 unit), and $10.00 to place (2 units) on Wonder Phil.

Step 4:  Bet Exacta:  With the scratch of One Big Gator, Wonder Phil became the top Wunderdog selection.  Since Wonder Phil is also the Value Play horse we have to bet Wonderdog's second selection, Squeeze The Fox, in the top spot of our exacta:  Bet a 1 unit ($5.00) exacta Squeeze the Fox over Wonder Phil.

Step 5: Result:   Wonder Phil did not win the race so we lost our $5.00 win bet.  Wonder Phil did come in 2nd and paid $6.50 to place giving us a $22.50 profit on our $10.00 place bet.  The best news is that Squeeze the Fox won the race completing a huge $244.00 exacta. The profit on our $5.00 exacta bet is $605.00.  The profit on the race is $622.50.

This race is of course a huge exception but if you look at the August 2011 results on the Past Month's Results Page  you will see that this win came at the end of a fairly long losing streak.  

Woodbine Race #5 August 28, 2011 Result

Example #2: August 28, 2011

Wonderdog's next free selection was at Del Mar race 3, posting at 5:00 PM eastern. 

Step 1:  Record The Morning Line: Top pick Bourbon Bay's morning like was 6 to 5.  Second selection CELTIC NEW YEAR was 4 to 1, and final selection IMPONENTE PURSE was 3 to 1

Step 2:  Find the Value Play Horse:  There are no 5 to 1 horses........there is no 9 to 2 horse....there is a 4 to 1 horse, Celtic New Year.  

Step 3:  Bet Celtic New Year:  Because Celtic New Year has a morning line of 4 to 1  (and there are no 5 to 1 morning line entries, and no 9 to 2 entries) he becomes our Value Play horse.  Bet $5.00 to win (1 unit), and $10.00 to place (2 units) on Celtic New Year.

Step 4:  Bet Exacta:  The top Wunderdog selection in the race is Bourbon Bay.  Bet a $5.00 exacta Bourbon Bay over Celtic New Year.

Step 5: Result:  Celtic New Year went off as a bit of an overlay at 9 to 2 winning the race and returning $11.00 to her backers.  Based on a $5.00 wager the system returned a $22.50 profit on our win bet.  Celtic New Year paid $4.20 to place producing an $11.00 profit on our $10.00 place wager.  Since Bourbon Bay did not win the race we lost our $5.00 exacta wager. ( For those interested in "boxing" the exacta, it paid $20.80  with Bourbon Bay finishing 2nd)

 Wunderdog Free Value Play Horse Racing System
March 2011 Results